PK Aggarwal

Pramod Aggarwal was born in New Delhi, India, in 1954. A graduate of the University of Delhi, he obtained his PhD in Life Sciences from the University of Indore, India, in 1983, followed by a second PhD from Wageningen University, the Netherlands. He currently holds the position of National Professor at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi.

Aggarwal began his career as a scientist in 1976 at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, where he worked on drought resistance mechanisms in crops. In the early 1980s, he contributed to the quantification of the spectral signatures of crop canopies as affected by the stage of development, nutrition, water stress and crop variety, for use in satellite remote sensing. At the same time, he began working on crop growth modelling and its applications in agricultural research and development.

In the mid-1980s, Aggarwal attended the International Rice Research Institute, Philippines, for postdoctoral studies on the sustainability of upland rice farming and crop diversification. While there, he developed methods of enriching rice crops grown in poor soils with lopped leaves of intercropped legumes. He also used crop models to assess the scope of cultivating wheat in tropical environments of Southeast Asia.

After returning to India, Aggarwal established a crop growth modelling group at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute to study the quantitative relationships between crop growth processes and the environment. The group successfully developed WTGROWS, a crop simulation model for wheat, and showed its satisfactory performance across a wide range of subtropical and tropical agro-environments. Aggarwal then led this group to develop a generic dynamic crop simulation model, InfoCrop, which simulates all major processes of crop growth, soil water, nutrient balance, greenhouse gas emissions and crop-pest interactions. His group has so far trained more than 250 scientists and students in crop modelling. InfoCrop is now being used by a large number of scientists for estimating potential yields and yield gaps, impact assessment of climatic variability and climatic change, optimizing crop management, genotype-by-environment-by-management (G × E × M) interactions, yield forecasting, yield loss assessment due to pests and inventories of greenhouse gas emissions.

Aggarwal returned to work at the International Rice Research Institute, Philippines, from 1994 to 1996. In this period, he developed an innovative simulation modelling methodology to determine strategies needed for ecoregion-specific plant types. This research demonstrated that, at the level of management currently practiced in plant breeders’ plots, the search for higher yield potential might remain elusive even though the germplasm being screened may possess traits for higher yield potential. In the late 1990s, Aggarwal and his colleagues developed a methodology for assessing the carrying capacity of land by integrating biophysical and socio-economic evaluations. The methodology resorts to statistical and simulation models of various crops and livestock, remote sensing, field surveys, GIS and optimization techniques to explore the possible sustainable land use options that can meet the goals of maximizing food production, employment and income, while maintaining the natural resource base.

Over the past two decades, Aggarwal has contributed significantly to the assessment of the probable impacts that global climate change may have on Indian agriculture and to devising adaptation strategies. He has used mechanistic crop models, field experiments and controlled environment facilities to show that global climate change could have significant negative impacts on the production of wheat, rice, legumes and oilseeds. Simple adaptation strategies, such as a change in planting dates and varieties, can reduce these losses. His analysis has shown that the increase in temperatures over the last two decades has been partly responsible for the decreasing trend of rice yields in northern India. His studies indicate that global warming is likely to decrease the efficacy of current options to increase crop yields, and that alternate sources of growth must be found to increase production in the future. Aggarwal has also contributed to developing an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in India.

In 2004, the Indian government established a network to help assess the implications of climate change on agriculture. Aggarwal has been the coordinator of this group since its inception. More than 150 scientists from 23 research institutes and universities quantify the sensitivity of crops (including horticultural crops and plantations), agro-forestry, soils, water, fish, poultry and livestock to global climate changes. The network has successfully established the indigenous field infrastructure that is required for these studies, including temperature gradient tunnels, open-top chambers and CO₂ enrichment rings in open field.

Aggarwal has pioneered the use of crop models to characterize risks of yield loss for different scenarios of high temperatures, deficit rainfall, frost and fog, for several crops, including wheat, rice, mustard, sorghum and soybean. A number of Indian insurance companies have been using this characterization of climate risks to develop insurance policies that are benefiting millions of vulnerable farmers.

Aggarwal was the coordinating lead author for the chapter ‘Food, Fiber and Forest Products’ in the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He serves as secretary of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences, India, and is a member of the editorial boards of several journals (Agricultural Systems, Outlook on Agriculture, Crops and Pastures and Mausam). He is a Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences, India, and of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences, India. In 1983, Aggarwal was awarded the Young Scientist Medal by the Indian National Science Academy. He is also the recipient of the Asana Endowment Prize for 1980–83 by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research.

Aggarwal teaches courses on environment, simulation, agro-ecosystems analysis, and global climate change and has guided several MSc and PhD students. His publications include 10 books/monographs and 150 research articles in national and international journals and books.